We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s economy, and looser fiscal policy will provide just a modest boost to growth in Europe. The trade war should not significantly dent global trade, but this view is predicated on countries refraining from escalatory rounds of retaliation to US tariff hikes. Global inflation should flatline this year, on average, so the scale of central bank interest rate cuts will be smaller this year than last.
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