Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Morocco’s economy to accelerate

Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy...

21st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Trump trade and EM crisis risks

The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with...

12th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

War and peace

Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again

OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 ’24, Flash Estimate)

The 0.8% q/q rise in Saudi GDP in Q3 is likely to be followed by further steady increases, but growth will be driven increasingly by higher oil output while there are signs that the non-oil sector is...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read