Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How worrying is Saudi Arabia’s public debt trajectory?

Saudi Arabia’s government has been the largest EM issuer of hard currency debt over the past few years and this Update considers what will happen to the Kingdom’s public debt burden under different...

20th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire

As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The...

17th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel after the war: what comes next?

The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can...

16th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future

The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the...

16th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire

The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the...

15th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the...

15th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Dec. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased a touch from 2.0% y/y in November to 1.9% y/y in December and it is likely to hover around these rates over the first half of 2025 before slowing toward 1%...

15th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy

EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Assessing the risks to energy prices

While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president

Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets...

9th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 25.5% y/y in November to 24.1% y/y in December, its slowest pace in two years. With earlier falls in the pound falling out of the annual price comparison...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Is Egypt at risk of a sudden stop?

The improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic stability since March’s policy shift has resulted in a surge in capital inflows on a similar scale to that which followed the 2016 devaluation. But if signs...

8th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem

Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to...

7th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Dec. 2024)

December’s batch of PMIs declined for the most part across the Gulf but we doubt that the strength of non-oil activity will be sustained in 2025, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Elsewhere...

6th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read