Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi inflation, Moroccan rates

Saudi inflation rose further in November but there were tentative signs that some of the recent drivers of higher price pressures are fading and we expect the headline rate to drop back towards 1% by...

19th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy to underwhelm in 2025

Saudi Arabia’s constrained approach to oil policy is here to stay until April and, coupled with the turn to fiscal consolidation, means growth will pick up by less than others expect in 2025.

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect...

11th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2025

2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 26.5% y/y in October to 25.5% y/y in November and, with falls in the pound starting to fall out of the annual price comparison and global food and energy...

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Syria after Assad

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift...

9th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

OPEC+ remains in can-kicking mode

While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily...

5th December 2024 · 3 mins read