Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s investment slump to ease, but challenges remain We think the investment slump that has caused Hungary’s economy to underperform its Central European peers is close to bottoming out, but ongoing delays to EU funds and overcapacity in certain parts... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Focus The macroeconomic implications of CBAM in the EU Ahead of the phase-in of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from the start of 2026, and the associated phase-out of free carbon permits for EU producers, this Focus assesses the... 15th October 2025 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Egypt heads to Washington Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of agreeing a long-awaited ceasefire agreement. If it holds, this puts the region on a path to end the war and removes key downside risks to the Middle East’s... 9th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech election nears, awaiting a fiscal impulse The Czech parliamentary election kicks off today, with opposition populist party ANO set to gain the most number of seats. Depending on its actual vote share, the only way it may be able to form a... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
