Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the latest... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of... 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean? The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called... 21st February 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q4 last year as alternative asset yields rose while property yields edged lower, leaving only the prime office sector fairly valued. That said, the falls we... 19th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent... 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks outside of Asia increasingly cautious The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think there is limited scope for interest rate cuts this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to end the... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today was widely expected, and the hawkish communications suggest that policymakers are not going to bend to... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
