Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in... 24th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Dutch residential to outperform in the euro-zone Residential has been the Netherlands’ strongest performing commercial property sector since the GFC, with bumper rent growth a key contributor to that outperformance. Looking ahead, slower wage growth... 24th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: New, higher growth forecasts Optimism about the euro-zone economy has risen markedly in recent weeks and we have revised our GDP growth forecasts up. We now think the economy will grow by 0.9% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lower services inflation to prompt more ECB rate cuts Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Germany close to releasing the brake – all aboard? A big spending plan nears in Germany, but that might not mean higher yields or a stronger euro. 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: How big a boost from defence? Europe’s plans to increase its defence expenditure are still evolving, but based on what we know so far, we assume that for the euro-zone as a whole it will rise by around 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (January 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in January does not change the fact that output remains well below its levels prior to the energy crisis. And survey data suggest the sector will... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fiscal spending shift worsens the German property outlook Events of the past week or so have worsened the outlook for German commercial property. While more government spending could marginally boost rents, the higher outlook for interest rates will outweigh... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock of the euro’s epic rally The dollar has suffered one of its largest weekly falls on record in the wake of President Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop, continued jitters around the health of the US economy and, most importantly... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
