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US Economics Update

First thoughts on Omicron impact

28 Nov 2021

With cases of the new Omicron variant being reported on several continents now, there is a good chance that it is already present in the United States. We still know almost nothing definitive about whether Omicron is more transmissible or deadly than other coronavirus variants, but it adds to the downside risks, which were already on the rise with the winter surge in infections in the Northeast and the Midwest. Under those circumstances, we think it is unlikely that the Fed will accelerate the pace of its QE taper at this month’s FOMC meeting, which could have paved the way for interest rate hikes earlier next year. There is some debate about whether Omicron will add to inflationary pressure if it affects supply more than demand, but the collapse in energy prices suggest that, initially at least, the impact will be strongly disinflationary.

28 Nov 2021

Global Markets Focus
Is inflation about to spell trouble for the stock market?
1 Dec 2021
European Economics Weekly
Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish
26 Nov 2021
Global Trade Monitor
Supply constraints cause world trade to trend lower
25 Nov 2021
Emerging Europe Economics Update
Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation
9 Nov 2021

Japan Economics Update

Participation rate set to fall further

6 Dec 2021

The pandemic has brought a halt to the last decade’s rise in Japan’s participation rate which had allowed the labour force to expand despite challenging demographics. Any post-pandemic recovery is likely to be short-lived: we expect the participation rate to drop back over coming decades and the labour force to be 17% smaller by 2050.

6 Dec 2021

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