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Latest Insights

What matters now in global macro

Insights you need to navigate the global economy with confidence

US Economics Update

16 September, 2026

SEP suggests only limited appetite for further Fed hikes

The Fed’s interest rate hike today is likely to be followed by at least one more later this year, probably in December. While the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed may be content with just two hikes in total, we judge…

Stephen Brown

Chief North America Economist

Asset Allocation Focus

14 September, 2026

What to expect in markets when the bubble in AI bursts

There are plenty of signs that we are now in the late stages of a bubble in AI. When the bubble eventually bursts, we expect the subsequent fallout to include not only very substantial drops in…

John Higgins

Chief Economic Adviser - Financial Markets

Emerging Markets Economics Update

9 September, 2026

Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time

A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the…

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist

Commodities Update

28 August, 2026

What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal?

If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve…

David Oxley

Chief Climate and Commodities Economist

What we do

Navigate complex market dynamics with confidence

Staying on top of macroeconomic shifts requires a deep understanding of market forces. Capital Economics turns complexity into clear insights that help you immediately identify business risks and growth opportunities.

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Analysis

Access unbiased macroeconomic analysis from clear, concise summaries and deep dives. Our global team of more than 60 expert economists delivers timely, actionable insights across over 100 economies and markets, empowering you to make decisions with confidence.

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Strengthen your market perspective with comprehensive forecasts, proprietary indicators and interactive dashboards, all embedded in our written analysis. Leverage our API to integrate macroeconomic data with your internal models and systems.

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Upcoming Events

Online Event

Oct 2026

In 3 days

15:00 BST

Drop-In: China Shock 2.0 and the return of global imbalances

China's rapidly expanding trade surplus is the clearest sign of a widening in external imbalances on a scale not seen since the mid-2000s. But how much of a risk do they pose to global macro stability, how long will they persist, and how disruptive would any adjustment be? We’re bringing together a panel of senior economists on Tuesday, 8th October for this online briefing. During this session,…

In-Person Event: UK Roundtable - Autumn Budget preview - what to expect and implications for growth and markets

14 October, 2026

9:00AM BST

Capital Economics, 100 Victoria Street, SW1E 5JL

In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Singapore

20 October, 2026

9:00AM BST

Guoco Midtown Network Hub Level 2

In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Hong Kong

21 October, 2026

9:00AM BST

The Executive Centre, No, 28 Stanley St, Central, Hong Kong

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THE CHIEF ECONOMIST'S VIEW

China Shock 2.0 is not simply a story about trade. China’s growing influence is also being felt through investment flows, technology transfer, commodity markets and the global transition to clean energy. Understanding these developments is becoming increasingly important for investors, businesses and policymakers.

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist

Read the latest Chief Economist's Note

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