INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTING AND CONSULTANCY

Ahead of the curve.

Make better decisions faster with Capital Economics’ unmatched insight into the global economy and markets.

Global Economic Outlook

Pandemic rebound peaks but recovery story still intact

28 Jul 2021

The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The US and China were among the fastest to recover to their pre-virus paths or even beyond, so it is no surprise that they are slowing first, whereas growth in the euro-zone and Japan has yet to peak. The spreading Delta variant is a risk, but mainly to Emerging Markets where vaccination is less advanced. As goods shortages ease, activity normalises, and commodity prices fall, most economies should see inflation drop back towards central bank targets and policy tightening will generally be more limited or come later than markets expect. Even in the US, where inflation is a bigger threat, we do not expect interest rate hikes until the first half of 2023.

28 Jul 2021

Asset Allocation Update
The darkening relative prospects for China’s equities
29 Jul 2021
Asset Allocation Outlook
Tempering our optimism
21 Jul 2021
US Economics Focus
Will the pandemic boost productivity growth?
27 Jul 2021
Global Trade Monitor
World trade recovery levelling off
26 Jul 2021

India Data Response

Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

2 Aug 2021

The sharp rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to evidence that the economy has been staging a strong recovery ever since the second virus wave receded. But with vaccine coverage still low, sustained improvements are far from guaranteed. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5^th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

2 Aug 2021

See all our Latest Research →

China Data Response
China PMIs (Jul.)
2 Aug 2021
Emerging Asia Data Response
Korea Trade (July)
2 Aug 2021
Emerging Asia Data Response
Manufacturing PMIs (July)
2 Aug 2021
Australia & New Zealand Data Response
Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)
2 Aug 2021