INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTING AND CONSULTANCY

Ahead of the curve.

Make better decisions faster with Capital Economics’ unmatched insight into the global economy and markets.

Global Economics Update

What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world

16 Sep 2021

We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence. Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bust in China, we suspect it would take a policy misstep for this to cause a sharp slowdown in its economy. In a hard-landing scenario, several emerging markets are vulnerable. But in general, the global impact of swings in Chinese demand is often overstated.

16 Sep 2021

Global Economics Update
Sky-high shipping costs pose upside risk to inflation
14 Sep 2021
US Economics Update
Delta not the main factor weighing on growth
13 Sep 2021
UK Economics Focus
The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult
7 Sep 2021
Asset Allocation Update
Equity valuations: the US versus the rest
27 Aug 2021

CE Spotlight

Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading?

20 Sep 2021

The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation and the latest wave of technological progress are putting less downward pressure on prices than in previous decades, but at the same time, weak union power and the continued trend towards flexible labour markets mean the risks of wage-price spirals still look low. The key threat in our view is whether policymakers’ commitment to low inflation has begun to weaken, with those risks greatest in the US.

20 Sep 2021

See all our Latest Research →