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What matters now in global macro 

Insights you need to navigate the global economy with confidence

Kevin Warsh
Capital Daily

We really need to talk about Kevin now

Market participants gave Fed Chair Warsh’s second press conference two thumbs down. If he is serious about taking guidance from market prices rather than dishing it out, a course correction is in order. That would point to rate hikes this autumn,…

Jonas Goltermann

Chief Markets Economist
US Employment Report Preview

A better month for payrolls

We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a stronger 90,000 in July, but the risks lie toward the unemployment rate ticking back up to 4.3%.

Stephen Brown

Chief North America Economist
Japan Economics Update

Ueda opens door to September BoJ rate hike

In response to Governor Ueda’s hawkish comments, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the next rate hike from October to September. That would imply a marked acceleration in the Bank’s tightening…

Marcel Thieliant

Head of Asia-Pacific
China Economics Focus

Chinese AI models – your questions answered

Last week’s release of Kimi K3 has triggered a renewed wave of global interest in Chinese AI models. This Focus answers the key questions we have received from clients. It discusses how Chinese…

Julian Evans-Pritchard

Head of China Economics

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London Roundtable February 2023

THE CHIEF ECONOMIST'S VIEW

Central banks can sometimes achieve the desired tightening or loosening in financial conditions simply by shaping expectations, without actually changing interest rates. But there are limits to this strategy. Markets eventually test central banks’ resolve. If policymakers repeatedly hint that rates will rise but fail to deliver, investors will begin to doubt their commitment. Inflation expectations may drift higher and currencies may weaken, forcing policymakers to act anyway. 

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist

Read the latest Chief Economist's Note

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