Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports end 2024 on a record high China’s exports of the “New Three” ended last year at a new record high as US firms continued to ramp-up imports of Chinese-made batteries. Meanwhile, the backdrop of heightened tariffs and slowing... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tightens export controls, births rise The final export control measures of Joe Biden's presidency further restrict China's access to advanced AI technology and mark another escalation in geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, although... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariff front-running to temporarily boost world trade There is already some evidence of US importers increasing orders, at least for goods from China, before Trump’s proposed tariffs come into effect. We think this may continue in the next few months... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Debt swap a band-aid for China’s fiscal challenges The debt swap that kicked off in November and extends to 2028 reduces the risk of near-term defaults by local government financing vehicles, which would be destabilising for financial markets. But it... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Broad credit growth rebounded last month, but bank loan growth continued to hit record lows. We expect strong government bond issuance to continue supporting credit growth over the coming quarters... 14th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2024) Export growth rebounded last month, with both export values and volumes posting double-digit y/y gains. We expect shipments to remain strong in the coming months, as US importers continue to stockpile... 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi A sharp depreciation of the renminbi this week took the currency to the edge of the trading band that the PBOC has been holding steady since Donald Trump's election. The PBOC is likely to ramp-up its... 10th January 2025 · 8 mins read
