Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp

South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming...

21st February 2025 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025)

While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces...

21st February 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine...

20th February 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond

Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support...

20th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa 2025 Budget Postponed

The eleventh-hour unprecedented postponement of South Africa’s 2025 Budget due to disagreements within the Government of National Unity on tax policy, suggest that it is domestic rather than foreign...

19th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump

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Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of...

18th February 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Key questions on Europe’s defence spending

European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is...

17th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism

In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening...

14th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: NZ mulls tax cuts, Australia could gain from trade war

Speculation has been growing that the New Zealand government will slash the corporate income tax rate in the upcoming May budget. Given that New Zealand’s corporate tax rate is higher than in most...

14th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe

President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does...

13th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some...

13th February 2025 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the...

12th February 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this...

12th February 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

German election: return of the GroKo?

The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist...

11th February 2025 · 3 mins read