India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
India Rapid Response India’s government appoints new RBI governor India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The... 9th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will begin cutting the repo rate in April The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% today highlights its unease at the current rate of headline inflation. Admittedly, the lowering of the cash... 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Reserve Bank of India Policy Announcement (Dec.) 6th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q3 2024) GDP figures show the economy slowed sharply last quarter, and we expect economic activity to struggle over the coming quarters. That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2024) Amid the Trump Trade, capital outflows from EM financial markets have persisted over recent weeks. Looking ahead, we expect the US dollar to strengthen further, suggesting that outflows will continue... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
