India Economics Update India, Trump and the H-1B visa debate President Donald Trump for now at least appears to be in favour of the H-1B visa scheme, a key route for Indians to work in the US tech sector, but the scheme is a key source of friction among his... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up again over the past few weeks amid a strengthening of the US dollar and broad increases in bond yields, but also country-specific issues – most notable... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Can India’s policymakers bring the good times back? 1738054800 For so long the darling of global investors, India’s economy and financial markets have hit a sticky patch of late.
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Climate Economics Update A nuanced take on renewable rollout outperformance On the face of it, the fact that the world is installing more renewable electricity generating capacity than seemed likely just a few years ago is encouraging for the green transition. That said, one... 13th January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The further moderation in Indian headline consumer price inflation in December supports our view that the monetary easing cycle will kick off at the RBI’s next policy meeting in February. 13th January 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Is the RBI changing tack on the rupee? Movements in the Indian rupee - which hit a fresh low of 85.9/$ his week - appear to have been bigger under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra than they were under his predecessor, raising the... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India: FDI slump set to reverse The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India last year seems in large part a reflection of still-high global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
