India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India’s digital economy going from strength to strength Five years on from start of the pandemic, one of the big economic legacies in India is the adoption of digital payments, driven by mobile apps and the Unified Payments Interface. This increased... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp fall in Indian headline consumer price inflation in January reinforces our view that the RBI will continue to loosen monetary policy over the coming months to support the economy. 12th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update New governor, new direction for the RBI The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb. 25) The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget to provide limited growth boost Tax breaks included in India’s FY25/26 Union Budget announcement should provide some support to household consumption but, overall, the measures fall some way short of constituting major stimulus... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: New governor, new direction for monetary policy The announcement of large liquidity injections into the banking sector demonstrates how the priorities of the RBI – led by new Governor Sanjay Malhotra – have shifted from containing inflation to... 29th January 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update The rise of the Indian tourist India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
