China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining... 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation in Asia to stay low, easing cycle to continue Headline inflation in Asia has continued to ease over the past year and is now back to (or below) target everywhere. We expect inflation to remain subdued over the coming year as improved growing... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update What to expect from India’s FY25/26 Union Budget Hopes that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big fiscal package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in the upcoming Union Budget are likely to be disappointed. Some more... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What a Coalition victory would mean for Australia We suspect that a Coalition government would run slightly tighter fiscal policy than Labor, which in turn may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen monetary policy a bit more aggressively... 22nd January 2025 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 21st January 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India, Trump and the H-1B visa debate President Donald Trump for now at least appears to be in favour of the H-1B visa scheme, a key route for Indians to work in the US tech sector, but the scheme is a key source of friction among his... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Could Vietnam find itself in Trump’s crosshairs? Vietnam could take a number of measures to reduce its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, notably stepping up its purchases of US farm products and clamping down on transshipments from China... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports end 2024 on a record high China’s exports of the “New Three” ended last year at a new record high as US firms continued to ramp-up imports of Chinese-made batteries. Meanwhile, the backdrop of heightened tariffs and slowing... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s political crisis, BI’s surprise cut, Trump and Asia There are growing signs that the economy in Korea is being affected by the political crisis. This is one of the key reasons why we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle soon, following... 17th January 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: US tightens export controls, births rise The final export control measures of Joe Biden's presidency further restrict China's access to advanced AI technology and mark another escalation in geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, although... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
