India Economics Update India trip notes – Trump tariffs, the digital boom and data A week spent visiting clients, policymakers and contacts in India underlines that the digital economy is thriving, that there is hope that India will not be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, and that much... 25th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: further easing coming The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by a further 25bps (to 2.75%) and made clear that further easing is on the way. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to remain low, we are... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: US dollar going nowhere fast, but the yen is on the move Despite a continued steady stream of headlines out of the Trump administration, currency markets have remained remarkably calm this week. The dollar has stabilised today but remains around its lowest... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Private sector support, property prices President Xi's meeting with top tech leaders underscores a shift back to a more constructive attitude toward private firms that has been underway since 2023. Meanwhile, data out this week showed that... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s budget, Trump auto tariffs, BoK to cut Singapore’s budget for the upcoming fiscal year contained a number of giveaways designed to boost support for the government ahead of elections, which must be held by November. In terms of the... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (February 25) The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank of Japan won’t wait long before hiking rates again 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Tariffs or no tariffs, LME copper prices will still fall Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply... 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 25) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in January should add to the Bank of Japan’s confidence that it can continue its tightening cycle over the coming quarters... 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily China’s renminbi dilemma We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
