Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Mar. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI saw a small rise in March to 46.4, from 44.6 in February. But that still left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP set to cut rates, but not very far There has been a marked dovish shift on the Polish National Bank’s (NBP’s) MPC and it now looks like interest rate cuts will come this year, rather than in 2026 as we'd previously thought. But we... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (March) Despite easing in March, CPIF inflation excluding energy remained elevated and is likely to remain high throughout this year. We are forecasting the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 2.25% over that... 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate... 2nd April 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scenarios of what US tariffs mean for the UK economy Our scenarios of how different rates of US tariffs on UK exports could influence the UK are designed to provide clients with some real-time context when President Trump announces tariffs tonight... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland left is policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and while our forecast is for policy settings to remain unchanged throughout 2025, the risks of an earlier resumption of... 2nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Large variation in long-term office demand prospects across the euro-zone Five years since the onset of the pandemic, the share of remote working in the euro-zone has generally increased by more than we had expected back in 2020. But office-based employment growth has also... 2nd April 2025 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read
