Chief Economist's Note Key reads to get ready for 2025 Data releases and a slew of central bank meetings have made for a busy end to the year. Our latest monetary policy analysis is listed here, and you can explore and download our interest rate forecasts... 23rd December 2024
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2024 2nd Estimate) The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% isn’t quite as bad as it looks and leaves scope for a lively debate with the family over the festive period about whether or not the economy is... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025 We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been... 20th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to decline in Q4 overall. And although that will bring little... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2024) Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But the weakening in the economy and recent rises in market interest rates suggests the government... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish hold suggests rates will be cut further than markets expect While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025 The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps... 19th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Dec. 2024) While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 24) The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
