Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, CEE fiscal deficits The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine will be to... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariffs may cause EZ GDP to flatline in Q2 and Q3 Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast... 25th April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Are the markets expecting too many rate cuts? While the deteriorating outlook for activity increases the chances of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates at its recent pace of one 25 basis point cut every quarter, which translates... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey points to a subdued UK commercial property recovery The Q1 RICS survey showed little change from the previous quarter, with surveyors pointing to subdued levels of occupier demand and elevated availability. That points to a slowdown in rental growth... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2025) March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a better-than-expected start to the year for the retail sector. That said, March’s rise was... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey highlights weak momentum in European CRE The RICS survey showed that the recovery in occupier and investor demand remained muted in Q1 and uncertainty about tariffs means this picture is unlikely to change in the near term. 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (April 2025) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in April suggests that US tariffs have not yet meaningfully hit economic activity in Germany, though some sentiment indicators have fallen sharply. But... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 25) UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025) April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2025) March’s public finances figures showed that public borrowing was overshooting the OBR’s forecast even before the influence from the tariff chaos is felt. This raises the chances that if the Chancellor... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why even the worst-hit cities look likely to recover The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with... 22nd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The weaker-than-expected Polish industrial production and wage data for March have increased the probability that the central bank (NBP) will restart its easing cycle at its next meeting in May, but... 22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
