Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan

The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate...

17th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future

The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the...

16th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US

Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer...

15th January 2025 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: better placed to face Trump now?

Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy

EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on...

14th January 2025 · 18 mins read

FX Markets Update

Brazilian real bottoming out, but fiscal risks persist

The Brazilian real plunged in 2024, due to fiscal risks. While we suspect that further piecemeal austerity measures will prevent another leg down in the currency, with investors’ fiscal fears unlikely...

13th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus

While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further...

10th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy?

Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent...

8th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem

Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to...

7th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than...

23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s market meltdown

Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read