Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications

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A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a...

12th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance?

The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2025

2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024)

The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary...

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits

Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read