Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s investment, auto tariffs The bright spot in the Colombian Q4 GDP data published this week was the rise in fixed investment, but the volatile political situation and low savings rate will limit the rise in the coming years... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: another year of soft growth lies in store Colombia’s economy strengthened at the end of last year, with GDP expanding at its fastest pace in more than two years. But the combination of tight fiscal and monetary policy, alongside lower oil... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and... 17th February 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks outside of Asia increasingly cautious The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of steel and aluminium tariffs The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s election: crunch time for the public finances Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is set to be a tight race, with a second round run-off in April likely to be needed to separate the two leading candidates. Among the next government’s... 6th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Trump still reliably unreliable President Donald Trump’s eleventh-hour decision to delay the 25% tariffs he had threatened to impose on Canada and Mexico is a good reminder of his unpredictable nature. We don’t think Trump’s U-turn... 5th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
