Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than...

23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025

Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and...

20th December 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Weekly

What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025

We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Nov)

The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria: inflation, rates, and budget optimism

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Otherwise, President Tinubu unveiled the 2025...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No economic bazooka in German election manifestos

The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general...

20th December 2024 · 10 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further

Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan

The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary

We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the...

19th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi inflation, Moroccan rates

Saudi inflation rose further in November but there were tentative signs that some of the recent drivers of higher price pressures are fading and we expect the headline rate to drop back towards 1% by...

19th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read