Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 2025) 26th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ negotiated wage inflation will fall sharply this year The decline in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.1% in Q4 last year is likely to be followed by further large falls this year. This is because tax-free one-off wage payments which lifted German... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone underlying inflation easing gradually January’s inflation data show that domestic price pressures are strong but easing. We remain convinced that they will decline much further this year. 24th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb. 2025) The fall in core inflation in Mexico in the first half of February combined with weak economic activity, means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another 50bp cut at its meeting next month. 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Inflation rises ahead of growing tariff threats The January CPI release highlighted the upside risks to the inflation outlook but, with US tariff threats continuing to pile up, there is still good reason for the Bank of Canada to continue its... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2025) The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways in the middle of Q1, following a 0.1% q/q rise in Q4 of last year. (See Chart 1.) But more... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (February 25) The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank of Japan won’t wait long before hiking rates again 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
