UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried by stagnating GDP? Today’s GDP release, which confirmed that the economy has hardly grown at all since March, is a blow for the government given its pledge to secure the “highest sustained growth in the G7”. We still... 15th November 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep. & Q3 2024) The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update One US deficit that won’t worry Trump President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most... 14th November 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024) October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024) Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24) Valuations improved in Q3 as alternative asset yields fell back. But since then, the combined impact of the Budget and US election has more than reversed the decline in the 10-year gilt yield seen... 7th November 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Update Budget means Bank of England won’t cut rates as fast and as far While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024) While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
