UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Global real estate can shake off latest bond yield rises Renewed rises in market interest rates across the UK, US and euro-zone have prompted questions about the implications for real estate. For now, we think the upside risk to property yields is small. We... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025 1738249200 Join Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams for this online briefing all about the first rate decisions of 2025 from th
UK Economics Update Gentle fall in UK household saving rate to support spending Our analysis suggests that most of the recent rise in the household saving rate can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural factors, which means the saving rate will slowly fall as interest... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 25) The rise in gilt yields since the start of the year will weigh on transactions and put upward pressure on property yields over the next couple of months. But we still think risk-free interest rates... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2024) Against a backdrop of slowing GDP growth and high interest rates, December’s overshoot in borrowing is further disappointing news for the Chancellor. That said, most of the overshoot was because of a... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov. 2024) While the further rise in regular private sector pay growth in November will cause the Bank of England some unease, it will take comfort from the continued loosening in labour market activity. We... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government spending may have saved the UK economy in Q4 We know that the economy flatlined or suffered a small contraction in Q4. But that would have been much worse if not for what appears to be a rise in government spending, which will play an important... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are clouds forming over the UK property investment outlook? With commercial property capital values stabilising and credit conditions easing, the stage was set for a decent recovery in investment this year. However, the recent rise in gilt yields has cast a... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) December’s 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.4% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) and rounded off a disappointing Q4, with sales declining by 0.8% q/q in Q4 overall... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2024) While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 2024) December’s RICS survey suggests that the relief rally after the Budget may have started to fade at the end of last year and the recent rise in mortgage rates have finally began to weigh on housing... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Drop in foreign students a small risk for PBSA rents At first glance the 24% y/y drop in sponsored study visas in Q3 2024 spells bad news for PBSA rents. But the cause of that drop - new rules banning international students from bringing dependents -... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
