India Economics Update India, Trump tariffs and friendshoring prospects Friendshoring into India has for the most part been limited to high-end manufactured goods, but broader supply chain reconfiguration into the country could take place if the Trump administration... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs? The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating... 20th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and EMs: key questions answered We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports shrug off tariffs China’s green export volumes rose in October and were just 3% shy of the record high reached in August. Chinese battery makers could be hit hard by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals. But the... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Upward pressure on JGB yields could ease next year We doubt upward pressure on Japan’s long-term bond yields will persist for long, as the Bank of Japan tightens policy by less than investors anticipate and yields in the US remain quite stable. 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth in Thailand accelerated in Q3 and we think the boost from loose fiscal policy will support growth in the coming quarters and help offset a slowdown in the tourism sector. 18th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New FX forecasts, BoT independence under threat We have finalised changes to our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. We think Asian currencies will weaken by 3-10% against the US dollar between now and the end of... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The poor prospects for China’s stock market We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus next steps, lower growth forecast Hopes for fiscal stimulus have so far amounted to very little. Wider efforts to support growth are still ongoing and we should find out more about the leadership’s priorities early next month. But a... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2024) China’s economy improved further at the start of Q4, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. We think faster fiscal spending will support a continued cyclical pickup in activity overing... 15th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets starting to anticipate December rate hike The financial markets have finally come around to our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates once more before year-end. With domestic economic data mixed, that probably reflects the... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
