Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: 100 Days In – The economic impact of Trump’s second term so far 1746021600 The tradition of gauging a president’s progress by their first 100 days began with FDR’s whirlwind start in 1933 – but it’s the opening stretch of Donald Trump’s
Global Economics Update Would an equity crash spell disaster for the economy? The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) Aside from some industrial assets, commercial property is not directly impacted by higher tariffs. However, uncertainty and the likelihood that economic growth slows will likely hold back investment... 17th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Expectations for oil demand still too strong The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though those forecasts still appear overly rosy. Our base... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada holds but further cuts likely The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.75% today was not a big surprise given recent above-target core CPI gains, concerns about tariff-induced price rises and uncertainty about the... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2025) The fall in industrial production in March was not as bad as it looks given that it was driven solely by a large weather-related drop in utilities output. Manufacturing enjoyed a strong first quarter... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar 2025) A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials sales and a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 25) The housing market took another leg down in March, with the larger decline in single-family home prices suggesting that owner-occupiers rather than investors are behind the most recent weakness... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market turbulence may continue to subside While the dust from the market sell-off continues to settle, there are few signs that the turmoil in equity and sovereign bond markets has sparked broader instability or a self-reinforcing downward... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The downward surprise to CPI inflation in March, along with the first target-consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in eight months, at the margin raise the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
