Commodities Rapid Response Trump leaves door open for Saudi to flood the market 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may not yet ride to non-US equities’ rescue Although developed market (DM) equities outside the US have purportedly benefited from bargain hunting recently, we doubt they will outperform their counterparts in the US over the course of 2025 as a... 23rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Global real estate can shake off latest bond yield rises Renewed rises in market interest rates across the UK, US and euro-zone have prompted questions about the implications for real estate. For now, we think the upside risk to property yields is small. We... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi-US relations already warming under Trump Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US already appear to be on a stronger footing during Donald Trump’s first few days in office, adding to signs that it’s drift towards China is over. The Kingdom... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) On the surface, the 0.4% decline in retail sales volumes in November looks worrying, but that fall partly reflects households delaying purchases ahead of the December GST holiday. Encouragingly... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will... 23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada Watch: Tariff uncertainty favours 25bp cut The recent pick-up in GDP growth and core inflation pressures could justify a pause from the Bank of Canada next week but, with tariffs clouding the economic outlook, we judge that the Governing... 22nd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily AI: shooting for the stars Donald Trump’s ringing endorsement of Stargate is another shot in the arm for Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early days of his second presidency, and supports our long-standing view that the S&P... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed to pause easing cycle We expect the strength of the economy and uncertainty over immigration and trade policy to prompt the Fed to pause its easing cycle at next week’s FOMC meeting, despite recent improvements in the near... 22nd January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Mr Trump goes (back) to Washington President Donald Trump returned to the White House today with pen already in hand to sign what is expected to be close to 100 executive orders. That flurry of executive action will set the tone on... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s term starts with a bang in markets Fresh reports that President Trump will not impose tariffs on Day 1 mean that his inauguration has, quite fittingly, coincided with a volatile day across financial markets. Although we suspect that a... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
