Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Copper’s COMEX “crocodile” won’t snap shut Having risen to a record high this week, the spread between copper prices on the COMEX in the US and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is set to persist, and could conceivably even widen further in the... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Sentiment sours among US fossil fuel producers Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue... 27th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so. 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to be only a modest drag on payrolls DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet... 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump imposes 25% tariff on auto imports Following media reports at the start of this week that product-specific tariffs would be deferred, President Donald Trump has changed tack once again and announced that all finished motor vehicle... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail subsectors to see more consistent performance Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a... 26th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2025) Stronger orders for primary metals and fabricated metal products in February suggest that tariff effects helped to drive up core durable goods orders last month, while transportation orders also did... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook US Office Metros Outlook: Southern metros set for clear outperformance The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office... 25th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Focus Trump’s agenda isn’t “game over” for ESG investing Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG, investing has come under renewed pressure due to pushback from the new US president. Despite that, we think that demand for ESG investments is here to... 25th March 2025 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2025) After a large partly weather-driven fall in January, last month’s small rebound in new home sales was a little underwhelming but still illustrates that the market for new homes is in decent shape. 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
