Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note A geopolitical realignment – or is it? Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine... 24th February 2025 Chief Economist's Note Lessons from a week of Trump trade policy turmoil Less than a month into the new Trump administration and already it feels as though enough has been written about trade, tariffs and US foreign relations to last four years. With events moving quickly... 10th February 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs and AI – Why markets are being roiled by this year’s two dominant themes The past week was bookended by developments in two areas that will play a significant role in shaping the year ahead: tariffs and technology. Tariff man strikes On Saturday, President Trump announced... 3rd February 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trump tariff threats strike fear into the global economy – but this isn’t the 1930s redux Tariffs are coming. That seems to be one of the key takeaways from an extraordinary week which began with relief that the new president’s inaugural address skipped talk of tariffs, but was followed by... 27th January 2025 Chief Economist's Note Crunch time in Washington Weeks of speculation have been building to the moment at midday DC time today when Donald Trump will, for a second time, place his hand on the Bible and swear to faithfully execute the office of the... 20th January 2025 Chief Economist's Note From US outperformance to the DM bond sell-off – Key questions at 2025’s start 2025 has taken little time to get going, with more evidence of the US’ relative economic strength, weakness in Chinese equity markets, and a dramatic sell-off in DM bond markets – not least gilts. And... 13th January 2025 Chief Economist's Note Key reads to get ready for 2025 Data releases and a slew of central bank meetings have made for a busy end to the year. Our latest monetary policy analysis is listed here, and you can explore and download our interest rate forecasts... 23rd December 2024 Chief Economist's Note Key risks in 2025: What could go wrong (and right)? Earlier this month, we published our key macro and market themes for 2025. It has also become tradition at this time of year to publish a list of key risks to watch for in the coming 12 months. This... 16th December 2024 Chief Economist's Note It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core. When Europe features prominently in client questions it is not normally a good sign. The past few days have been no exception. The immediate concern is France, where the government of Michel Barnier... 9th December 2024 Chief Economist's Note Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next year It’s the season for the usual avalanche of reports looking ahead to the coming twelve months. Over the coming days and weeks we will publish our macro and market Outlook reports, which will provide in... 2nd December 2024 Chief Economist's Note Inflation, China and AI – Trump isn’t the whole macro story News of who’s in – and who’s out – of Donald Trump’s government, and what that means for the US and the rest of the world, continues to swirl. While Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury... 25th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs have stolen the spotlight but Trump’s immigration pledges may be the real macro threat I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the... 18th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note Trump’s near-term macro impact won’t be big. Longer term is a very different story. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has prompted a scramble among economic forecasters to adjust their numbers in anticipation of a very different path for US policy. We’re not convinced that the... 11th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note A short guide to a big week In a week in which the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to deliver further rate cuts, and there’s anticipation that the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress... 4th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note Governments must fly the flag of fiscal rectitude as bond vigilantes circle Maybe it’s the approach of Halloween that spooks the bond market so much. Two years ago, the UK government’s “mini Budget” triggered a meltdown in the gilt market and ultimately ended Liz Truss’s... 28th October 2024 Chief Economist's Note China, bonds, Trump – The big talking points from a week in Asia A crucial part of understanding the global economy is getting out into it. As well as an opportunity to catch up with old friends, getting on the road and meeting with clients provides important... 21st October 2024 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note A geopolitical realignment – or is it? Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine... 24th February 2025
Chief Economist's Note Lessons from a week of Trump trade policy turmoil Less than a month into the new Trump administration and already it feels as though enough has been written about trade, tariffs and US foreign relations to last four years. With events moving quickly... 10th February 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs and AI – Why markets are being roiled by this year’s two dominant themes The past week was bookended by developments in two areas that will play a significant role in shaping the year ahead: tariffs and technology. Tariff man strikes On Saturday, President Trump announced... 3rd February 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trump tariff threats strike fear into the global economy – but this isn’t the 1930s redux Tariffs are coming. That seems to be one of the key takeaways from an extraordinary week which began with relief that the new president’s inaugural address skipped talk of tariffs, but was followed by... 27th January 2025
Chief Economist's Note Crunch time in Washington Weeks of speculation have been building to the moment at midday DC time today when Donald Trump will, for a second time, place his hand on the Bible and swear to faithfully execute the office of the... 20th January 2025
Chief Economist's Note From US outperformance to the DM bond sell-off – Key questions at 2025’s start 2025 has taken little time to get going, with more evidence of the US’ relative economic strength, weakness in Chinese equity markets, and a dramatic sell-off in DM bond markets – not least gilts. And... 13th January 2025
Chief Economist's Note Key reads to get ready for 2025 Data releases and a slew of central bank meetings have made for a busy end to the year. Our latest monetary policy analysis is listed here, and you can explore and download our interest rate forecasts... 23rd December 2024
Chief Economist's Note Key risks in 2025: What could go wrong (and right)? Earlier this month, we published our key macro and market themes for 2025. It has also become tradition at this time of year to publish a list of key risks to watch for in the coming 12 months. This... 16th December 2024
Chief Economist's Note It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core. When Europe features prominently in client questions it is not normally a good sign. The past few days have been no exception. The immediate concern is France, where the government of Michel Barnier... 9th December 2024
Chief Economist's Note Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next year It’s the season for the usual avalanche of reports looking ahead to the coming twelve months. Over the coming days and weeks we will publish our macro and market Outlook reports, which will provide in... 2nd December 2024
Chief Economist's Note Inflation, China and AI – Trump isn’t the whole macro story News of who’s in – and who’s out – of Donald Trump’s government, and what that means for the US and the rest of the world, continues to swirl. While Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury... 25th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs have stolen the spotlight but Trump’s immigration pledges may be the real macro threat I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the... 18th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note Trump’s near-term macro impact won’t be big. Longer term is a very different story. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has prompted a scramble among economic forecasters to adjust their numbers in anticipation of a very different path for US policy. We’re not convinced that the... 11th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note A short guide to a big week In a week in which the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to deliver further rate cuts, and there’s anticipation that the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress... 4th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note Governments must fly the flag of fiscal rectitude as bond vigilantes circle Maybe it’s the approach of Halloween that spooks the bond market so much. Two years ago, the UK government’s “mini Budget” triggered a meltdown in the gilt market and ultimately ended Liz Truss’s... 28th October 2024
Chief Economist's Note China, bonds, Trump – The big talking points from a week in Asia A crucial part of understanding the global economy is getting out into it. As well as an opportunity to catch up with old friends, getting on the road and meeting with clients provides important... 21st October 2024
