Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025 Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025 Chief Economist's Note It’s the politics, stupid Another squall in the bond market appears to have blown itself out. The summer lull had been interrupted by a jump in long bond yields, triggering warnings about surging government borrowing costs and... 15th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note A fractured world - and a US own goal? Launching a book is never straightforward. It requires planning, persuasion – and sometimes a bit of luck. I have been fortunate on that front this past week with two events in China providing... 8th September 2025 Chief Economist's Note A post-summer catch-up With Europe still returning from the beach and the US gearing up for Labor Day, I’ll spare you a full note this week. But for those easing back into work, here’s a quick recap of the key developments... 27th August 2025 Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025 CE Insights America or China? As the global economy fractures, the world will have to choose Seemingly endless commentary has been devoted to the supposed death of globalisation. But as ever in economics, the story is not quite so simple. The popular narrative goes like this: tariffs first... 13th August 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trump, institutions and the deafening silence of the markets Late last week, Donald Trump did what he does best: lob a grenade into the machinery of government. In this case, the target was the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the body responsible for... 6th August 2025 Chief Economist's Note Chinese overcapacity is a disinflationary gift and a geopolitical threat Tariff-driven price pressures are finally starting to show up in the US economy. June inflation data offered early evidence that President Trump's tariffs are feeding through supply chains and those... 21st July 2025 Chief Economist's Note Fiscal stability is now as much about people as policy The public finances of several key advanced economies are, to put it mildly, in a mess. Recent attention has been on the United States, where the ‘One, Big, Beautiful Act’ has entrenched large federal... 14th July 2025 Chief Economist's Note This trade war is the symptom – global fracturing is the cause Markets are starting the week braced for what happens when the 90-day reprieve on Liberation Day tariffs expires on Wednesday. But even as the next phase of Donald Trump’s tumultuous trade agenda... 7th July 2025 Chief Economist's Note Trump tariffs are forcing a global reckoning with China’s manufacturing excess ‘Chart of the week’ has to go to our China team, whose effort below was a centrepiece of discussions in our latest client roundtables. It shows exports from China to the US, Europe and the rest of the... 30th June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty The rapid escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now pulled in the US, has – for the time being at least – displaced trade, tariffs and fiscal vulnerabilities at the top of a... 23rd June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Without a plan in a complex, fracturing system – takeaways from the latest US-China twist Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the best. It was in effect last week as the US and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London. Both sides indicated progress... 16th June 2025 Chief Economist's Note Capital controls as a fix for US deficits – no longer unthinkable, still costly It’s big, but it’s far from beautiful. In fact, the sheer size of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that’s currently working its way through Congress is part of what makes it so unwieldy – and so... 9th June 2025 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025
Chief Economist's Note How much is too much? Thinking through triggers of the next fiscal crisis It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called... 29th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs may stall trade growth, but China’s overcapacity is the bigger danger What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week... 22nd September 2025
Chief Economist's Note It’s the politics, stupid Another squall in the bond market appears to have blown itself out. The summer lull had been interrupted by a jump in long bond yields, triggering warnings about surging government borrowing costs and... 15th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note A fractured world - and a US own goal? Launching a book is never straightforward. It requires planning, persuasion – and sometimes a bit of luck. I have been fortunate on that front this past week with two events in China providing... 8th September 2025
Chief Economist's Note A post-summer catch-up With Europe still returning from the beach and the US gearing up for Labor Day, I’ll spare you a full note this week. But for those easing back into work, here’s a quick recap of the key developments... 27th August 2025
Chief Economist's Note US chip reversal highlights policy incoherence in a fractured world President Trump likes to tell us that the United States “holds all the cards” in the ongoing trade war. Judging by the surprisingly mild inflationary impact of tariffs so far – less than most... 18th August 2025
CE Insights America or China? As the global economy fractures, the world will have to choose Seemingly endless commentary has been devoted to the supposed death of globalisation. But as ever in economics, the story is not quite so simple. The popular narrative goes like this: tariffs first... 13th August 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trump, institutions and the deafening silence of the markets Late last week, Donald Trump did what he does best: lob a grenade into the machinery of government. In this case, the target was the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the body responsible for... 6th August 2025
Chief Economist's Note Chinese overcapacity is a disinflationary gift and a geopolitical threat Tariff-driven price pressures are finally starting to show up in the US economy. June inflation data offered early evidence that President Trump's tariffs are feeding through supply chains and those... 21st July 2025
Chief Economist's Note Fiscal stability is now as much about people as policy The public finances of several key advanced economies are, to put it mildly, in a mess. Recent attention has been on the United States, where the ‘One, Big, Beautiful Act’ has entrenched large federal... 14th July 2025
Chief Economist's Note This trade war is the symptom – global fracturing is the cause Markets are starting the week braced for what happens when the 90-day reprieve on Liberation Day tariffs expires on Wednesday. But even as the next phase of Donald Trump’s tumultuous trade agenda... 7th July 2025
Chief Economist's Note Trump tariffs are forcing a global reckoning with China’s manufacturing excess ‘Chart of the week’ has to go to our China team, whose effort below was a centrepiece of discussions in our latest client roundtables. It shows exports from China to the US, Europe and the rest of the... 30th June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty The rapid escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now pulled in the US, has – for the time being at least – displaced trade, tariffs and fiscal vulnerabilities at the top of a... 23rd June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Without a plan in a complex, fracturing system – takeaways from the latest US-China twist Occam’s Razor is the idea that the simplest explanation is usually the best. It was in effect last week as the US and China wrapped up two days of trade talks in London. Both sides indicated progress... 16th June 2025
Chief Economist's Note Capital controls as a fix for US deficits – no longer unthinkable, still costly It’s big, but it’s far from beautiful. In fact, the sheer size of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ that’s currently working its way through Congress is part of what makes it so unwieldy – and so... 9th June 2025
