Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that its easing cycle will remain on pause throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish view than the latest... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – Trump tariffs, the digital boom and data A week spent visiting clients, policymakers and contacts in India underlines that the digital economy is thriving, that there is hope that India will not be hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, and that much... 25th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: further easing coming The Bank of Korea today cut interest rates by a further 25bps (to 2.75%) and made clear that further easing is on the way. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to remain low, we are... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb. 2025) The fall in core inflation in Mexico in the first half of February combined with weak economic activity, means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another 50bp cut at its meeting next month. 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of... 24th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Inflation rises ahead of growing tariff threats The January CPI release highlighted the upside risks to the inflation outlook but, with US tariff threats continuing to pile up, there is still good reason for the Bank of Canada to continue its... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation underpinned by soaring labour costs With the economy growing well above trend and inflation double the Bank of Japan's target, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift its policy rate to 1%... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. ’25) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate unchanged at 27.25% today but, with inflation set to slow sharply over the next couple of months, we think policymakers will start the... 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
