Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaning towards further rate cuts The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected. And the monetary policy statement sent a clear signal that the Bank will cut rates further to counter the impact of... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT battling against capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today, which came against the backdrop of continued FX reserve losses and large capital outflows... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB’s Monetary Policy Review, Nigeria Inflation The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation, but it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished. With inflation likely... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: not the end of the easing cycle The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged, but the dovish commentary from the press conference and the statement suggest further cuts are coming. We are sticking with our view that rates... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Mr Akazawa goes to Washington While the Bank of Japan will probably cut its forecasts for GDP growth at its May meeting, we still expect the Bank to signal confidence in meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. Indeed... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada holds but further cuts likely The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.75% today was not a big surprise given recent above-target core CPI gains, concerns about tariff-induced price rises and uncertainty about the... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
