Canada Economics Weekly Canada Economics Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes could push Japan’s 10-year yield past China’s We think further tightening by the Bank of Japan will see the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rise above that of the 10-year Chinese government bond, for the first time in more than two decades... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The Bank of Japan signalled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% today. With inflation set to remain above its 2% target this year, we expect the policy rate to reach 1.25% next... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan will lift rates above 1% next year The Bank of Japan signaled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% this week and we expect rates to climb further than most expect over the coming year. Meanwhile, the budget deficit... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Cooling labour markets will support disinflation Data released this week suggest that the RBNZ's concerns about the stickiness of homegrown inflation are overdone. Indeed, non-tradables inflation undershot the Bank's expectations for a second... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement (January 2025) 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025 1738249200 Join Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams for this online briefing all about the first rate decisions of 2025 from th
Global Economics Update Should we believe central banks’ interest rate forecasts? When central bankers give guidance on likely interest rates changes in the next month or two, it’s probably best to believe them. But experience shows that banks’ own interest rate forecasts are very... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Slow and steady cuts by the ECB The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate from 3.00% to 2.75% next week and signal that further reductions are likely. But it will stop short of giving any precise guidance about the timing and scale... 23rd January 2025 · 7 mins read