Commodities Update

US election not going to roil commodity markets

The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and...

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next?

The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown

Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

EU tariffs still not weighing on China's EV exports

Following a record high in August, our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes edged down in September. Meanwhile, China’s exports of EVs to Europe surged despite the recent EU tariffs...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing

The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Equities Focus

Dim outlook for energy equities

This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming...

18th October 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Update

How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?

With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short...

17th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s fiscal vagueness sinks commodity prices

The pledge at this weekend’s press conference to increase fiscal expenditure could support China’s commodity demand over the first half of 2025. But at this stage, none of the fiscal or monetary...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps

Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout

While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all...

9th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025

Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that...

8th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read