Commodities Weekly

Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU

President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been...

20th December 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic

Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the...

20th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats

We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less...

19th December 2024 · 44 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

18th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

17th December 2024 · 19 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025

Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn...

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect...

11th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the...

10th December 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a...

10th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Syria after Assad

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift...

9th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read