Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil supply concerns retake the reins

While various tariff-related carveouts have helped to ease concerns about some of the most acute tail-risks facing global oil demand, support for benchmark prices is being eroded by renewed concerns...

25th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Higher LNG demand to drive Henry Hub prices up

The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term...

24th April 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 25)

UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and...

23rd April 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Expectations for oil demand still too strong

The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though those forecasts still appear overly rosy. Our base...

17th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil...

16th April 2025 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates

The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes

The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers...

11th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices?

President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external...

10th April 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (April 2025)

Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be...

10th April 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Trump and Africa: the story so far

The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices...

10th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

A pulse check on the oil market amid tariff mayhem

The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices...

9th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Gold, equity bear markets, and recessions

While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here...

9th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

MENA PMIs: a soft end to Q1

March’s batch of PMIs across much of the Middle East and North Africa came in softer as worries about a global trade war weighed on activity. Those concerns will have only mounted in the wake of...

7th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf

President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years...

4th April 2025 · 4 mins read