US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French public debt: trouble brewing Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance... 21st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Government spending may have saved the UK economy in Q4 We know that the economy flatlined or suffered a small contraction in Q4. But that would have been much worse if not for what appears to be a rise in government spending, which will play an important... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in industrial production in December is consistent with the recent improvement in the survey evidence. However, we do not think this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in the... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption? Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2025) The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s political crisis, BI’s surprise cut, Trump and Asia There are growing signs that the economy in Korea is being affected by the political crisis. This is one of the key reasons why we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle soon, following... 17th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
