Three years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings, the tide is turning in favour of the economies of North Africa. Admittedly, there are still many challenges, not least reining in large twin current account and fiscal deficits. Nonetheless, a gradual return to political stability in Egypt and Tunisia should support activity there, while exports are likely to pick up on the back of the modest recovery in the global economy. Overall, we expect growth to gradually strengthen over the next couple of years. By contrast, we think growth in the Gulf is likely to slow as the past decade’s boom in hydrocarbon production fades and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. The big picture is that growth in North Africa could surpass that in the Gulf come next year.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services