Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya-Angola fiscal worries, Cocoa Price, Uganda GDP

Angola joined Kenya this week in tapping the dollar bond market, but both countries continue to face fiscal consolidation challenges, meaning sovereign default concerns will linger. Meanwhile, Côte d...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Trade deals back in focus

The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves

The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process...

9th October 2025 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

China tightens its grip on rare earths (again)

China has substantially expanded its rare earth export controls – these now apply not only to a wider range of elements and magnets but, on paper least, any goods that contain them in meaningful...

9th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Egypt heads to Washington

Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of agreeing a long-awaited ceasefire agreement. If it holds, this puts the region on a path to end the war and removes key downside risks to the Middle East’s...

9th October 2025 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI...

8th October 2025 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Aug. 2025)

The worsening in Canada’s goods trade balance in August was for all the wrong reasons, with exports falling and imports rising. Admittedly, unwrought gold played a notable role in flows in either...

7th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Slowdown in world trade will remain gradual

With the volatility surrounding tariff front-running seemingly in the past, global goods trade appears to be slowing. But the latest official and survey data support our view that this slowdown will...

6th October 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing

Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt...

6th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

The Bank should be less worried about high inflation

The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to...

3rd October 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation

President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year...

3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No sign of China import flood; Italy deficit back at 3%

The latest data show that there is little sign of a flood of cheap Chinese goods hitting the euro-zone as a result of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the new deficit projections released by the Italian...

3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

China’s iron ore extortion won’t succeed

China’s strong reliance on Australian iron ore means that its recent ban of imports from one of Australia’s mining giants will at best result in minor concessions. The bigger picture though is that...

3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers

The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal...

2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

Global renminbi usage rising, but only slowly

Chinese officials have been trying to boost global usage of the renminbi for over two decades. Some progress has been made, with new BIS data placing the currency’s share in global FX turnover at a...

2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read