Climate Economics Update

Tariff front-running holds up China green tech exports

China’s exports of the “New Three” held up in November, although this was solely due to the strength of lithium-ion battery exports to the US as firms prepare for the imposition of tariffs. Looking...

20th December 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic

Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the...

20th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary

We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the...

19th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

18th December 2024 · 0 mins read

US Rapid Response

Current Account (Q3)

The current account deficit widened to a $310.9bn, or 4.2% of GDP, in the third quarter, up from 3.7% of GDP in the second. Admittedly, the deficit briefly hit 4.6% of GDP in early 2022, when easing...

18th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

17th December 2024 · 19 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (December 2024)

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Key risks in 2025: What could go wrong (and right)?

Canada Economics Weekly

Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy

Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read