Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most... 14th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much power will the DPP have? Our base case is that the LDP/Komeito coalition will be able to push through major pieces of legislation, including a supplementary budget by year-end, with only minor concessions to the Democratic... 13th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly How would China retaliate? China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
