Canada Economics Weekly

Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow”

Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s market meltdown

Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No economic bazooka in German election manifestos

The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general...

20th December 2024 · 10 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan

The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications

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A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Fall Economic Statement a secondary event

The Fall Economic Statement (FES) showed a much larger budget deficit for the previous fiscal year than previously estimated, but that was largely due to one-off charges related to indigenous...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election

While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise?

Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance?

The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A guide to EM elections in 2025

2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for...

10th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the...

10th December 2024 · 12 mins read

India Rapid Response

India’s government appoints new RBI governor

India’s government has just appointed Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). He will replace the Shaktikanta Das following six years at the helm. The...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read