Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: More Apple pie, with a side of pragmatism Apple's reported decision to increase production of iPhones in India to export to the US is an example of how the country is well placed to benefit from the escalating trade war. But at the same time... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s exports to the US set to collapse Unless they are rolled back, the latest US tariff hikes mean that China’s shipments to the US will more than halve over the coming years, even assuming the renminbi weakens to 8.00/$. This will reduce... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Small, low-income EMs bearing the brunt of Trump 2.0 President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, SA Budget and GNU instability African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Economy can withstand tariff blow If the 26% US tariff on India is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity but the impact won't be very big given that India is not especially reliant on US demand. And the RBI can give an... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater... 3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico spared the worst, but growth will still be weak Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US tariff rate on China now almost 70% We’d already assumed substantial US tariffs on China in our forecasts. But the latest hikes take them even higher than we had anticipated. The economic hit to China will range between 0.5-1.0% of GDP... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Climate policy falls down the agenda The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
