Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ceasefire in Gaza, NBP’s dovish surprise The ceasefire in Gaza which came into force today will, if it proves lasting, support the ongoing recovery in Israel’s economy and makes an interest rate cut by the central bank at its next meeting... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China tightens its grip on rare earths (again) China has substantially expanded its rare earth export controls – these now apply not only to a wider range of elements and magnets but, on paper least, any goods that contain them in meaningful... 9th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Egypt heads to Washington Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of agreeing a long-awaited ceasefire agreement. If it holds, this puts the region on a path to end the war and removes key downside risks to the Middle East’s... 9th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines and the risks from the corruption scandal The ongoing investigation into corruption in the Philippines brings the risk of further protests over the coming months. So long as any unrest is limited in scale and duration, the economic and... 8th October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Why the Bihar state election matters The state election in Bihar in November will be the first since the deterioration in relations between India and the US. Bihar also happens to be one of India’s most agrarian states. A strong... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The fallout from France’s ongoing political deadlock The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two... 6th October 2025 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about political stability in Asia? Political protests have surged across Asia this year, fuelled by frustration with corruption, inequality, and job insecurity. While the immediate economic and market impact is likely to be limited, a... 6th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s PM resignation: what next? The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan? We doubt that incoming PM Sanae Takaichi will prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates altogether though her victory makes it less likely that the Bank will hike this year. In fact, any... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep hawks, Colombia-US rift intensifies The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% this week supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
