Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct. 2024) October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The US election and implications for MENA Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel... 31st October 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-IMF, Tunisia unorthodox policies, Blinken in Riyadh The economic hit from Egypt’s reforms is prompting officials to reevaluate the timeline for future policy moves under the IMF deal. But given the rise in capital flows from elsewhere, Egypt is better... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too... 17th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The second consecutive rise in Egypt’s headline inflation rate, to 26.4% y/y in September, on the back of electricity and fuel price hikes further reduces the chances of a first interest rate cut... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any... 26th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put... 19th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de... 12th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect... 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the... 5th September 2024 · 6 mins read
