UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2024) November’s money and lending data suggests that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving ahead of the Budget hasn’t gone away. As a result, today’s release adds further downside risk to our... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) China's November credit data show that monetary easing is still struggling to put a floor under borrowing. We doubt that the further rate cuts China’s leadership promised this week will do much to... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2024) October’s money and lending figures suggest that Budget worries prompted households to become more cautious with their borrowing and saving. Moreover, November’s weak activity data suggest the tax... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s economy to accelerate Morocco’s weaker economic performance this year is likely to be a blip. Buoyed by low and stable inflation, looser monetary policy, and a burgeoning manufacturing sector, we expect Morocco’s economy... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Unsecured lending: boom to bust? We argued 18 months ago that the sharp rise in unsecured lending left India’s financial sector at risk of rising defaults, and anecdotal evidence suggests that this risk is materialising. The chances... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Both bank lending and broad credit growth hit fresh lows in October in a sign that monetary easing hasn’t done enough to drive a substantial turnaround in private credit demand. And after last week’s... 12th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024) Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial... 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar needs to keep a watchful eye over banking risks The boom in bank lending in Qatar in the 2010s has unwound so far in a relatively orderly manner. Banks are well capitalised and are able to absorb a far greater rise in non-performing loans than we... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (Oct. 2024) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this... 21st October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Despite monetary easing and a pick-up in government bond issuance, both broad credit and bank loan growth hit fresh lows in September. While the PBOC will continue to loosen policy, this is unlikely... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
