UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025) While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada set for sustained period of weak growth We have updated our forecasts for Canada to account for the latest changes in US trade policy. A recession should be avoided, but the harsh tariffs on the vehicle sector and uncertainty about the... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Headwinds strengthen and tailwinds lighten We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from... 31st March 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to be only a modest drag on payrolls DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet... 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
