Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy to underwhelm in 2025

Saudi Arabia’s constrained approach to oil policy is here to stay until April and, coupled with the turn to fiscal consolidation, means growth will pick up by less than others expect in 2025.

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups

OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere...

12th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps

GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect...

11th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

OPEC+ remains in can-kicking mode

While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily...

5th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Syria latest, Saudi-US security pact, Tunisia central bank

The advance by Syrian rebels, which has taken President Assad’s forces by surprise, is unlikely to have significant macro implications, but it has shone the light on how geopolitical alliances in the...

5th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Nov. 2024)

November’s batch of PMIs showed an increase all of the Gulf economies, although there remained some underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s PMI improved a touch as...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war

With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation...

21st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read