Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The direct impact of Trump’s trade war on the region is likely to be... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate picked up to 2.3% y/y in March, the fastest pace since the middle of 2023. And inflation strengthened across most categories of the CPI basket, suggesting that... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil needs to fall a long way before Gulf’s pegs are at risk Oil prices have now fallen well below the level needed to balance current accounts across much of the Gulf, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of the region’s dollar pegs. And, indeed... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft end to Q1 March’s batch of PMIs across much of the Middle East and North Africa came in softer as worries about a global trade war weighed on activity. Those concerns will have only mounted in the wake of... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater... 3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s budget laid out, Saudi spending cuts Egypt’s FY2025/26 Budget outlined that the overall budget deficit will remain large, but that’s due to high interest payments. The government is committed to continuing to run a large primary surplus... 27th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal... 27th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a... 13th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Could Saudi renege on OPEC+ plan as fiscal woes emerge? Saudi Arabia agreed with the rest of OPEC+ to proceed with increases in oil output from April, but the slide in oil prices and the news that Aramco will cut its dividend payment will test the Kingdom... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMI’s point to a softer start to 2025 February’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf were generally softer and we think that non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf will record weaker growth this year. In contrast, Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Aramco’s dividend cut puts a dent in Saudi’s budget The news that Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, will cut its dividend payout this year will put a dent in the Kingdom’s public finances and, together with a likely decline in the state’s... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
