Bonds

What's the outlook for bonds?

Explore and download our forecasts for government and corporate bonds and projected bond returns via this interactive dashboard.

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The latest key insight, in-depth analysis and thematic research collections

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Interactive Markets Chart Pack

We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack (which combines our previous Global Markets, Asset Allocation, and FX Markets Chart Packs) with our views on the latest developments in global...

31st January 2025 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Rising yields risk macro fallout

If sustained, rising bond yields add to downside risks to economic growth. The potential direct effects on real activity are greatest in the US. But higher yields in other DMs could limit how far...

15th January 2025 5 mins read

Bonds Update

Is the Treasury sell-off over?

We think Treasury yields will fall over the remainder of this year, but that the yield curve could nonetheless continue to steepen.

17th January 2025 5 mins read

Bonds Update

How much yield divergence can we expect this year?

We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan.

24th January 2025 5 mins read

Bonds Update

Chinese bonds – is there any alternative?

We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly...

16th January 2025 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation in an inflating AI bubble

We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and...

17th December 2024 29 mins read

Bonds Focus

What to make of shrinking IG credit spreads

Despite being around multi-decade lows, we think credit spreads of US investment-grade corporate bonds could fall further still over the next year or so.

12th December 2024 11 mins read

Bonds Focus

Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?

Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive...

25th October 2024 17 mins read

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