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Global Markets Update

EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles

After the Fed recently delivered its first rate cut, we look at previous US loosening cycles to analyse how emerging markets assets have performed. This time around we expect the US to skirt a...

20th September 2024 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts

While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate.

19th September 2024 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the easing cycle already priced in?

Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early...

19th September 2024 4 mins read

FX Markets Update

RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar

We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets...

13th September 2024 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Focus

Rate cuts and asset returns

This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury...

12th September 2024 18 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds

Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US.

6th September 2024 5 mins read

DM Markets Chart Pack

Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the rally in developed market government bonds has gone a bit too far and that...

30th August 2024 1 min read

Global Markets Update

Is the equity market really back to square one?

While the S&P 500 is now nearly back to its all-time high in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole, underlying risk premia are still somewhat larger than before the July...

27th August 2024 4 mins read

Global Markets Focus

Can US credit spreads really stay this low?

US corporate credit spreads have all but unwound the rise they saw during the recent market turbulence, and are back at very low levels by past standards. We expect them to remain compressed over the...

22nd August 2024 13 mins read

Global Markets Update

What to make of the market summer squall

Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout...

15th August 2024 5 mins read

Global Markets Focus

Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets

Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent...

9th August 2024 10 mins read

Global Markets Update

No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads

While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on...

6th August 2024 4 mins read

DM Markets Chart Pack

Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Given that we broadly share investors' view about how far DM central banks will ease...

2nd August 2024 1 min read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 14 mins read

Global Markets Update

India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks

Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the...

26th July 2024 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally

China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help...

19th July 2024 5 mins read

Bonds

Explore financial markets data

Our Economists Recommend

Can US credit spreads really stay this low?

The US election and financial markets three months out

Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets

Global Markets Forecasts

All Coverage

EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles

Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts

Is the easing cycle already priced in?

RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar

Rate cuts and asset returns

The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds

Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Is the equity market really back to square one?

Can US credit spreads really stay this low?

What to make of the market summer squall

Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets

No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads

Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks

The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally