Bonds

Our Economists Recommend

The latest key insight, in-depth analysis and thematic research collections

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset Allocation Outlook: The calm after the storm

With the noise around US tariffs and war in the Middle East fading, at least for now, we think the stage is set for some further decent returns from “risky” assets – especially US equities – over the...

26th June 2025 27 mins read

Asset Allocation

Global Markets Forecasts

Explore our forecasts for equities and bonds across developed and emerging markets.

Bonds Focus

The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds

Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments...

19th August 2025 28 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets

We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy...

22nd August 2025 4 mins read

Capital Daily

FOMC cuts wouldn’t guarantee lower long-end yields

Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate...

12th August 2025 4 mins read

Bonds Update

On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds

We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades.

12th August 2025 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall

The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be...

7th August 2025 4 mins read

Bonds Focus

Measuring Treasury term premia

Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the...

14th July 2025 9 mins read

Treasuries not out of the woods

Even after another soft non-farm payrolls report, we still forecast that the 10-year Treasury will rise to 4.5% by end-2025. While we agree with investors that a 25bp Fed cut this month looks nailed on, our forecast is for two cuts this year and two next whereas market pricing implies six cuts between now and the end of 2026.

Elsewhere, we expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise further given our view that investors are still underestimating how far the Bank of Japan will normalise policy. By contrast, we think long-dated yields in the UK, Canada and New Zealand will see the largest falls as policymakers there cut rates further than current market pricing.