Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ remains in can-kicking mode While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily... 5th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Syria latest, Saudi-US security pact, Tunisia central bank The advance by Syrian rebels, which has taken President Assad’s forces by surprise, is unlikely to have significant macro implications, but it has shone the light on how geopolitical alliances in the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+ The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs... 7th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct. 2024) October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia election, UAE budget, Saudi King’s health Incumbent Kais Saied won Tunisia's election in an (unsurprising) landslide and his second term will probably see the economy remain on the path towards a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign... 10th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put... 19th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de... 12th September 2024 · 7 mins read
