Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt... 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet... 2nd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP... 26th September 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a... 25th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile... 18th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as... 18th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi foreign investment report, OPEC+ decision Media reports picked up on data published by Saudi Arabia this week which showed that 2024 was a record year for foreign direct investment inflows. But this didn’t take account of the fact that there... 11th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi debt issuances & housing reforms We suspect that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will result in a decision to keep oil production unchanged in October, rather than raise production further. But the risks to oil prices are still skewed to... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Aug. ‘25) The whole economy PMIs for August strengthened a little in the Gulf states, though the surveys still suggest that activity private non-oil sectors has softened in Q3. Elsewhere, while Egypt’s PMI fell... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be... 14th August 2025 · 6 mins read
