Commodities Weekly Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been... 20th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly China policy support is not enough to lift prices Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to... 13th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and Gulf GDP, Syria after Assad, MENA World Cups OPEC+’s decision to once again push back the unwinding of oil output cuts will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf and we expect GDP to expand by less than others anticipate next year. Elsewhere... 12th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Commodities Focus Europe waiting for LNG to flow The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the... 10th December 2024 · 12 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24) While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a... 10th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syria after Assad The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been warmly received by many, at least outside Russia and Iran, but a key lesson from the other Arab Spring countries is that hopes for a shift... 9th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+ The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update How to think about US tariffs on oil imports We are sceptical that US tariffs on oil imports will ever see the light of day. But if they did, they would probably result in lower oil production in Canada and Mexico, increased US gasoline prices... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
