Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (April 2025) Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be... 10th April 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market amid tariff mayhem The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft end to Q1 March’s batch of PMIs across much of the Middle East and North Africa came in softer as worries about a global trade war weighed on activity. Those concerns will have only mounted in the wake of... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ surprise adds fuel to oil market fire Amidst the commodity market chaos following “Liberation Day”, the surprise OPEC+ announcement that it will raise output by more than previously planned in May worsened the sharp decline in oil prices... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities escape firing line, but caught in crossfire The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The makings of a global LNG glut With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Copper’s COMEX “crocodile” won’t snap shut Having risen to a record high this week, the spread between copper prices on the COMEX in the US and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is set to persist, and could conceivably even widen further in the... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update Sentiment sours among US fossil fuel producers Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue... 27th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal... 27th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Commodities Trump’s upside risks to oil prices blunted by OPEC+ Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
