Emerging Europe Rapid Response

US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war

The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the...

18th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call

President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost...

13th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe

President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does...

13th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s economy set for a modest acceleration

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth will accelerate this year as the Kingdom starts to unwind oil production cuts from April. But while the Kingdom’s non-oil sector started the year on a strong footing...

11th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025)

Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact

1739458800

Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. 

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact

While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA

President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile...

6th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous

Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its...

6th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets

The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for...

5th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil

The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our...

4th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union?

EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change...

31st January 2025 · 14 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID

South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game

While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving...

31st January 2025 · 4 mins read