Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s best-laid plans could easily go awry While we learned this week that OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to gradually raise oil output from April, question marks over production discipline within the group and the strength of global oil demand... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Could Saudi renege on OPEC+ plan as fiscal woes emerge? Saudi Arabia agreed with the rest of OPEC+ to proceed with increases in oil output from April, but the slide in oil prices and the news that Aramco will cut its dividend payment will test the Kingdom... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Outlook Climate Economics Outlook: Technical progress outweighs political pushback The push back against the costs of climate policy, alongside the fracturing of the global economy, risks raising the cost of the green transition and slowing progress reducing emissions this decade... 6th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Aramco’s dividend cut puts a dent in Saudi’s budget The news that Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, will cut its dividend payout this year will put a dent in the Kingdom’s public finances and, together with a likely decline in the state’s... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
