Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note From upbeat to apocalyptic: making sense of the AI headlines It’s become almost too easy to knock Davos in a post-pandemic, fracturing world. The World Economic Forum may not be part of the solution to the world’s problems that its marketing team would have us... 22nd January 2024 Chief Economist's Note In the China versus US size stakes, it’s what you measure that counts The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical... 15th January 2024 Chief Economist's Note Holiday readings: The big stories of the year It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the coming twelve months. You can find our contribution on this dedicated ‘ World in 2024’ page, and listen to our... 18th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note 2024: Your most commonly asked questions answered Last week we held a series of online briefings on the outlook for 2024. In this week’s note, I answer three of the most commonly asked questions by clients during the sessions. Why have advanced... 11th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note When it comes to the green transition, follow the data not the rhetoric The COP28 jamboree in Dubai will produce a long list of climate promises from governments and corporate leaders, but these will be of little practical help to market participants attempting to track... 4th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023 Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023 Chief Economist's Note The bond bears are about to make contact with economic reality A strong September headline payrolls number whipsawed global bond markets on Friday but the net result was that yields ended the week at post-GFC highs. According to the financial commentariat, this... 9th October 2023 Chief Economist's Note It’s all connected – why investors can’t ignore the global economy’s megatrends Last week we published ‘AI, Economies and Markets’, our in-depth report on the economic and market implications of artificial intelligence. The report and accompanying data painted a positive picture... 2nd October 2023 Chief Economist's Note What the markets think about AI This week marks the launch of our annual Spotlight report, which will land in client inboxes tomorrow. This year we are exploring the economic and market impact of artificial intelligence. As with any... 25th September 2023 Chief Economist's Note Oil, China and false inflation narratives Investor nerves in recent weeks have been tested by two opposing inflation concerns. The first is that China is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will pull down the rest of the global economy... 18th September 2023 Chief Economist's Note The five questions that will determine AI’s ultimate economic and market impact The financial press is full of hot takes about how AI will revolutionise our lives, for better or worse. They are fuelling an often-breathless debate around this emerging technology that can leave... 11th September 2023 Pagination Previous Page 1 Page 2 Current page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note From upbeat to apocalyptic: making sense of the AI headlines It’s become almost too easy to knock Davos in a post-pandemic, fracturing world. The World Economic Forum may not be part of the solution to the world’s problems that its marketing team would have us... 22nd January 2024
Chief Economist's Note In the China versus US size stakes, it’s what you measure that counts The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical... 15th January 2024
Chief Economist's Note Holiday readings: The big stories of the year It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the coming twelve months. You can find our contribution on this dedicated ‘ World in 2024’ page, and listen to our... 18th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note 2024: Your most commonly asked questions answered Last week we held a series of online briefings on the outlook for 2024. In this week’s note, I answer three of the most commonly asked questions by clients during the sessions. Why have advanced... 11th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note When it comes to the green transition, follow the data not the rhetoric The COP28 jamboree in Dubai will produce a long list of climate promises from governments and corporate leaders, but these will be of little practical help to market participants attempting to track... 4th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023
Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023
Chief Economist's Note The bond bears are about to make contact with economic reality A strong September headline payrolls number whipsawed global bond markets on Friday but the net result was that yields ended the week at post-GFC highs. According to the financial commentariat, this... 9th October 2023
Chief Economist's Note It’s all connected – why investors can’t ignore the global economy’s megatrends Last week we published ‘AI, Economies and Markets’, our in-depth report on the economic and market implications of artificial intelligence. The report and accompanying data painted a positive picture... 2nd October 2023
Chief Economist's Note What the markets think about AI This week marks the launch of our annual Spotlight report, which will land in client inboxes tomorrow. This year we are exploring the economic and market impact of artificial intelligence. As with any... 25th September 2023
Chief Economist's Note Oil, China and false inflation narratives Investor nerves in recent weeks have been tested by two opposing inflation concerns. The first is that China is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will pull down the rest of the global economy... 18th September 2023
Chief Economist's Note The five questions that will determine AI’s ultimate economic and market impact The financial press is full of hot takes about how AI will revolutionise our lives, for better or worse. They are fuelling an often-breathless debate around this emerging technology that can leave... 11th September 2023
