Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Ignore the straight-line forecasts. These forces will shape the global economy to 2050. Long-term forecasting is perilous ground for economists. Predictions of what will happen in the long run tend to revert to the mean, implying that trend growth returns to an average recorded over the... 26th February 2024 Chief Economist's Note Capital Economics at 25: Five themes from the past – and for the next – quarter century Capital Economics is 25 years old. Founded by Roger Bootle in 1999, the company has grown from a handful of employees (and clients) to a global enterprise which today provides macro and market insight... 14th February 2024 Chief Economist's Note Central bankers should keep perspective as newsflow tests nerves Developments over the past week or so have put a dent in the until-recently widespread belief that inflation was firmly in retreat and that central banks had a clear path to cutting rates. Bond yields... 12th February 2024 Chief Economist's Note China’s policy tinkering isn’t addressing its structural challenges The big takeaway from the first Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings of 2024 is that policymakers will not be pushed into cutting rates any time soon. Policymakers in... 5th February 2024 Chief Economist's Note Pivoting central bankers must face down the ghost of Arthur Burns As the 2024 central bank calendar gets properly underway, debate is centering on the related questions of how hard it will be to get inflation back to target (the “last mile”) and the timing of when... 29th January 2024 Chief Economist's Note From upbeat to apocalyptic: making sense of the AI headlines It’s become almost too easy to knock Davos in a post-pandemic, fracturing world. The World Economic Forum may not be part of the solution to the world’s problems that its marketing team would have us... 22nd January 2024 Chief Economist's Note In the China versus US size stakes, it’s what you measure that counts The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical... 15th January 2024 Chief Economist's Note Holiday readings: The big stories of the year It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the coming twelve months. You can find our contribution on this dedicated ‘ World in 2024’ page, and listen to our... 18th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note 2024: Your most commonly asked questions answered Last week we held a series of online briefings on the outlook for 2024. In this week’s note, I answer three of the most commonly asked questions by clients during the sessions. Why have advanced... 11th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note When it comes to the green transition, follow the data not the rhetoric The COP28 jamboree in Dubai will produce a long list of climate promises from governments and corporate leaders, but these will be of little practical help to market participants attempting to track... 4th December 2023 Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023 Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023 Pagination Previous Page 1 Page 2 Current page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Ignore the straight-line forecasts. These forces will shape the global economy to 2050. Long-term forecasting is perilous ground for economists. Predictions of what will happen in the long run tend to revert to the mean, implying that trend growth returns to an average recorded over the... 26th February 2024
Chief Economist's Note Capital Economics at 25: Five themes from the past – and for the next – quarter century Capital Economics is 25 years old. Founded by Roger Bootle in 1999, the company has grown from a handful of employees (and clients) to a global enterprise which today provides macro and market insight... 14th February 2024
Chief Economist's Note Central bankers should keep perspective as newsflow tests nerves Developments over the past week or so have put a dent in the until-recently widespread belief that inflation was firmly in retreat and that central banks had a clear path to cutting rates. Bond yields... 12th February 2024
Chief Economist's Note China’s policy tinkering isn’t addressing its structural challenges The big takeaway from the first Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings of 2024 is that policymakers will not be pushed into cutting rates any time soon. Policymakers in... 5th February 2024
Chief Economist's Note Pivoting central bankers must face down the ghost of Arthur Burns As the 2024 central bank calendar gets properly underway, debate is centering on the related questions of how hard it will be to get inflation back to target (the “last mile”) and the timing of when... 29th January 2024
Chief Economist's Note From upbeat to apocalyptic: making sense of the AI headlines It’s become almost too easy to knock Davos in a post-pandemic, fracturing world. The World Economic Forum may not be part of the solution to the world’s problems that its marketing team would have us... 22nd January 2024
Chief Economist's Note In the China versus US size stakes, it’s what you measure that counts The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical... 15th January 2024
Chief Economist's Note Holiday readings: The big stories of the year It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the coming twelve months. You can find our contribution on this dedicated ‘ World in 2024’ page, and listen to our... 18th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note 2024: Your most commonly asked questions answered Last week we held a series of online briefings on the outlook for 2024. In this week’s note, I answer three of the most commonly asked questions by clients during the sessions. Why have advanced... 11th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note When it comes to the green transition, follow the data not the rhetoric The COP28 jamboree in Dubai will produce a long list of climate promises from governments and corporate leaders, but these will be of little practical help to market participants attempting to track... 4th December 2023
Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023
Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023
