Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Tariffs have stolen the spotlight but Trump’s immigration pledges may be the real macro threat I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the... 18th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note Trump’s near-term macro impact won’t be big. Longer term is a very different story. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has prompted a scramble among economic forecasters to adjust their numbers in anticipation of a very different path for US policy. We’re not convinced that the... 11th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note A short guide to a big week In a week in which the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to deliver further rate cuts, and there’s anticipation that the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress... 4th November 2024 Chief Economist's Note Governments must fly the flag of fiscal rectitude as bond vigilantes circle Maybe it’s the approach of Halloween that spooks the bond market so much. Two years ago, the UK government’s “mini Budget” triggered a meltdown in the gilt market and ultimately ended Liz Truss’s... 28th October 2024 Chief Economist's Note China, bonds, Trump – The big talking points from a week in Asia A crucial part of understanding the global economy is getting out into it. As well as an opportunity to catch up with old friends, getting on the road and meeting with clients provides important... 21st October 2024 Chief Economist's Note Interest rates will be higher in this cycle The next moves in interest rates are starting to become clearer. In the US, the incoming data continue to paint a picture of an economy that remains relatively resilient and suggest that, having... 14th October 2024 Chief Economist's Note Whether it’s China, oil or the Fed, investors need to understand macro The past few weeks have served as a rebuttal to those refuseniks who argue that macro doesn’t matter for markets. There have been at least three important events in which a macro understanding is... 7th October 2024 Chief Economist's Note How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world For good reason, much of the attention around what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the US economy has centred on his proposals to jack up tariffs and clamp down on immigration. If he... 30th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note A big bang start to the Fed’s easing cycle would still need to clear a high bar This week is set to be dominated by one question: will the Federal Reserve kickstart its easing cycle with a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate cut? Market pricing on this question has been swinging... 16th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Tariffs have stolen the spotlight but Trump’s immigration pledges may be the real macro threat I was visiting clients in the US last week, where the mood felt very different from Trump’s first election victory in 2016 (and when, incidentally, I was living and working in New York). Then, the... 18th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note Trump’s near-term macro impact won’t be big. Longer term is a very different story. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has prompted a scramble among economic forecasters to adjust their numbers in anticipation of a very different path for US policy. We’re not convinced that the... 11th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note A short guide to a big week In a week in which the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to deliver further rate cuts, and there’s anticipation that the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress... 4th November 2024
Chief Economist's Note Governments must fly the flag of fiscal rectitude as bond vigilantes circle Maybe it’s the approach of Halloween that spooks the bond market so much. Two years ago, the UK government’s “mini Budget” triggered a meltdown in the gilt market and ultimately ended Liz Truss’s... 28th October 2024
Chief Economist's Note China, bonds, Trump – The big talking points from a week in Asia A crucial part of understanding the global economy is getting out into it. As well as an opportunity to catch up with old friends, getting on the road and meeting with clients provides important... 21st October 2024
Chief Economist's Note Interest rates will be higher in this cycle The next moves in interest rates are starting to become clearer. In the US, the incoming data continue to paint a picture of an economy that remains relatively resilient and suggest that, having... 14th October 2024
Chief Economist's Note Whether it’s China, oil or the Fed, investors need to understand macro The past few weeks have served as a rebuttal to those refuseniks who argue that macro doesn’t matter for markets. There have been at least three important events in which a macro understanding is... 7th October 2024
Chief Economist's Note How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world For good reason, much of the attention around what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the US economy has centred on his proposals to jack up tariffs and clamp down on immigration. If he... 30th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note A big bang start to the Fed’s easing cycle would still need to clear a high bar This week is set to be dominated by one question: will the Federal Reserve kickstart its easing cycle with a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate cut? Market pricing on this question has been swinging... 16th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024
