Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features of the agreement. Lower natural gas prices, a boost to confidence, and the start of Ukraine’s reconstruction have the potential to benefit economies in Eastern Europe. That said, without adequate security guarantees, the perceived risks of doing business on NATO’s eastern border may rise, and higher defence spending could put pressure on already stretched fiscal positions across the region.
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