Europe Commercial Property Update

Oversupply will keep CEE logistics in a rut in 2025

The non-euro-zone central European logistics markets have been Europe’s worst performing in 2024 as prime rents have fallen across the region. 2025 will herald more of the same, as oversupply keeps...

19th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans

The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read