Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target? The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Parliamentary Election The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (First Round) The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Romania’s election: macro stability in the balance Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers... 21st November 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
