Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think there is limited scope for interest rate cuts this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to end the...

14th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Upside inflation risks build across CEE

The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously...

12th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t...

31st January 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think...

15th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

A guide to upcoming elections across CEE

A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future...

15th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy

EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look...

14th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem

Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to...

7th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE

The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Parliamentary Election

The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Presidential Election (First Round)

The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking...

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read