Turkey’s $500 Billion Gold Hoard Complicates Inflation Fight “Such a large concentration of wealth in gold in Turkey means that the sharp rise in prices could generate positive wealth effects and boost domestic consumption,” wrote Capital Economics senior... 10th October 2025 · Bloomberg
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient... 29th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank to slow the pace of easing to 250bp didn’t come as a major surprise but the fairly hawkish communications support our view that real interest rates are likely to... 11th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin meets energy allies, Turkey’s court decision China and India both signalled this week that they are likely to continue buying Russian energy, but this won't save Russia from weak GDP growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the macro data out... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: end of KKM a symbolic, but important, step The announcement that Turkey will end the lira-protected deposit scheme (KKM) will only have a limited impact. The scheme has largely been phased out already. But there’s still more to do to increase... 27th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (July) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in July, to 33.5% y/y, will encourage the central bank to continue its easing cycle next month. 4th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
