Event

Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question

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Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war

The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the...

18th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Unpacking the Trump-Putin call

The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view...

14th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe

President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does...

13th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact

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Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. 

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation

Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a...

31st January 2025 · 8 mins read

Event

EM Drop-in: The Russia-Ukraine war – The macro and market implications of an end to fighting

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Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he’d stop the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, and nearly three years after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, an end to fightin

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s threat to Putin, CBRT easing, CEE growth

Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with...

24th January 2025 · 8 mins read

Bonds Update

How much yield divergence can we expect this year?

We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan.

24th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Rapid Response

Trump leaves door open for Saudi to flood the market

The news from Davos that President Trump will “ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to bring down the cost of oil” is certainly in keeping with his desire for lower gasoline prices and his clear intention to use...

23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum

The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting?

Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials...

10th January 2025 · 9 mins read

Commodities Update

Assessing the risks to energy prices

While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –...

9th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT

A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read