Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target? The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and EMs: key questions answered We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update European gas at the mercy of LNG European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures... 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
