Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation

Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region...

17th December 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow...

27th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

War and peace

Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could pave the way for dialogue with Russia and a ceasefire in Ukraine, but we think it's unlikely in this scenario that sanctions on Russia would be lifted...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising

Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of...

9th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain

Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may...

27th September 2024 · 8 mins read