Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting... 11th September 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and... 11th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot? The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of... 11th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) 10th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update New US export controls will be harder to overcome The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it... 9th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2024) Despite a weather-related surge in vegetable prices, a fall in energy prices and core inflation meant CPI only rose a touch. Meanwhile, producer price deflation deepened on the back of worsening... 9th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3 After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2024) The much stronger-than-expected Brazilian GDP figure for Q2, of 1.4% q/q, means that the economy now appears to be on course to expand by 3% over the year as a whole. The flip side is that it will... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little... 3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2024) The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central... 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Aug. 2024) The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tariff barriers keep climbing, USD still dominates trade Canada's new tariffs on Chinese exports won't have much of an impact on China's economy, but they are symptomatic of a broader wave of protectionist measures that have been ramping up in recent years... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read