Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s market meltdown

Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria: inflation, rates, and budget optimism

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Otherwise, President Tinubu unveiled the 2025...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and...

20th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Bracing for headwinds

Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be...

19th December 2024 · 27 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy to underwhelm in 2025

Saudi Arabia’s constrained approach to oil policy is here to stay until April and, coupled with the turn to fiscal consolidation, means growth will pick up by less than others expect in 2025.

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

18th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications

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A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2024)

China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. Growth still looks on course to pick up this quarter, but the disappointing November data underscores...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target?

The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read