A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and Kenya to regain access to global capital markets. The former as well as Nigeria could also be hurt if Trump’s support for US oil and gas supply leads to lower global energy prices. There’s a lot of uncertainty about what will happen to aid flows and multilateral financing. But Africa’s critical mineral producers could reap benefits if the US intensifies its contest for influence in the region with China.
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