Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the...

10th December 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a...

10th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

European gas at the mercy of LNG

European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa

A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

The curious case of negative Texan natural gas prices

Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic.

6th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks

The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease...

30th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal

Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the...

4th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Focus

Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?

With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Lack of ceasefire deal poses risks; gold at record

The apparent stall in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas limited the fall in oil prices this week. While we think a deal wouldn’t be a game-changer for oil prices, a further breakdown in...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read