Emerging Europe Rapid Response

US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war

The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the...

18th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs

The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not...

14th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe

President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does...

13th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025)

Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact

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Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. 

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact

While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous

Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its...

6th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil

The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our...

4th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game

While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving...

31st January 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some...

30th January 2025 · 0 mins read

Event

EM Drop-in: The Russia-Ukraine war – The macro and market implications of an end to fighting

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Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he’d stop the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, and nearly three years after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, an end to fightin

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay

Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that...

24th January 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Trump starts with a bang; EU gas higher for longer?

President Trump hit the ground running by declaring a National Energy Emergency and outlining his desire for lower oil prices. Whilst Trump has put the focus on ramping up oil supply to bring oil...

24th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?

The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will...

23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire

As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The...

17th January 2025 · 4 mins read