Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget dispute, Russia-Ukraine and Africa, G20 South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the 2025 Budget in less than two weeks, but the past few days have only underlined the widening divide between the two main parties of the... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa 2025 Budget Postponed The eleventh-hour unprecedented postponement of South Africa’s 2025 Budget due to disagreements within the Government of National Unity on tax policy, suggest that it is domestic rather than foreign... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: economy likely to have rebounded in late-2024 South Africa’s hard activity data for December were generally disappointing but it’s still likely that the economy rebounded in Q4 of last year following a surprise contraction in Q3. We expect the... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 13th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Trump’s focus on land bill risks GNU instability The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals strong end to 2024 South Africa’s activity data for November points to a strong end to last year, underpinned by the mining and retail sectors. We think GDP will expand by an above-consensus 2.3% in 2025. 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24) The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
