Africa Economic Outlook

A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain...

17th December 2024 · 19 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election

While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Inflation in South Africa: more downside surprises to come

Inflation in South Africa is now running at extremely low rates by historic standards. While we think it will edge up from here, the extent of spare capacity in the economy and tight fiscal stance...

13th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.)

11th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election

The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic...

6th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa GDP (Q3 2024)

South Africa’s economy recorded a surprise contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q3, but that was largely due to a steep decline in agricultural output. The rest of the economy held up much better and we expect...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a...

27th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB rate cuts, Nigeria’s optimistic budget

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) struck an optimistic tone when it cut its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% this week and we expect more easing from here. But a potential lowering of the inflation...

22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns...

21st November 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The potential losers if AGOA is removed

US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact...

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3

South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery

South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read