Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa and US auto tariffs, Nigeria’s oil blasts South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya-IMF disagreement, SARB’s uncertainty worries Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal may replace it, we think public debt concerns are likely to build... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Industry lagging retail, but recovery to continue South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that the retail sector is steaming ahead and driving the recovery. We think the lagging industrial sector will start to catch up on the back of... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb '25.) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation figure for February, of 3.2% y/y, keeps the door open for the Reserve Bank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) at its meeting tomorrow. 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update South Africa’s political uncertainty likely to weigh on assets Lingering fiscal risks in South Africa, alongside the challenging global backdrop, prompt us to expect a dim outlook for the country’s bonds, equities and the rand over the rest of this year. 18th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uncertainty hangs over SA Budget, but compromise likely South Africa’s 2025 Budget speech was (finally) delivered but it’s not at all clear whether the plans will be approved given the DA’s opposition to the proposed VAT hike. We think there is more horse... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa’s 2025 Budget – Fiscal risks, macro and market consequences 1741797000 After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March.
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.6% q/q rebound in South Africa’s economy in the final quarter of last year came on the back of an upwardly-revised 0.1% q/q contraction in Q3 and suggests that the recovery is back on track. We... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget dispute, Russia-Ukraine and Africa, G20 South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will deliver the 2025 Budget in less than two weeks, but the past few days have only underlined the widening divide between the two main parties of the... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa 2025 Budget Postponed The eleventh-hour unprecedented postponement of South Africa’s 2025 Budget due to disagreements within the Government of National Unity on tax policy, suggest that it is domestic rather than foreign... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
