Capital Daily Valuations may not yet ride to non-US equities’ rescue Although developed market (DM) equities outside the US have purportedly benefited from bargain hunting recently, we doubt they will outperform their counterparts in the US over the course of 2025 as a... 23rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily AI: shooting for the stars Donald Trump’s ringing endorsement of Stargate is another shot in the arm for Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early days of his second presidency, and supports our long-standing view that the S&P... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect from EM financial markets in 2025 We are pessimistic about the outlook for most emerging market assets in 2025, due to the effects of Donald Trump’s agenda, slowing Chinese activity, subdued commodity prices, and domestic challenges. 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Non-US equities during Trump’s first year back in office We think Trump’s trade policies will weigh on equity returns outside of the US, making 2025 a year of muted returns for emerging market equities. But we think it will still be a decent year for stocks... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s term starts with a bang in markets Fresh reports that President Trump will not impose tariffs on Day 1 mean that his inauguration has, quite fittingly, coincided with a volatile day across financial markets. Although we suspect that a... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Currency calm before Trump’s tariff storm hits? Despite further large swings in bond markets this week, moves in currency markets have for the most part remained relatively muted ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next week. The dollar is broadly... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update Is the Treasury sell-off over? We think Treasury yields will fall over the remainder of this year, but that the yield curve could nonetheless continue to steepen. 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in Treasuries may have further to go Today’s release of US CPI data for December did not change our view that the Fed will cut its policy rate by a bit more than investors anticipate, and in turn that Treasury yields will edge down... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
