FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar ends the year with a bang; more to come in 2025? The FOMC’s hawkish surprise earlier this week has allowed the dollar to break through the top of its post-2022 range, putting it firmly on the front foot going into 2025. With the BoJ and the BoE both... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities ignoring struggling economy UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in... 18th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Nov. 2024) The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications 1734534000 A collapsing currency. A gaping budget deficit. And a president adding fuel to the fire.
FX Markets Outlook Trump win likely to extend dollar strength We expect the US dollar to appreciate a bit further in 2025 as the US economy and stock market continue to outperform peers and president-elect Donald Trump brings in extensive tariffs next year. As... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone credit spreads may largely shrug off weak growth We think corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone will widen only slightly next year, despite dim economic prospects. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an inflating AI bubble We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and... 17th December 2024 · 29 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
