Capital Daily Will inflation worries keep UK yields as high as US ones? Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall. 20th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Upward pressure on JGB yields could ease next year We doubt upward pressure on Japan’s long-term bond yields will persist for long, as the Bank of Japan tightens policy by less than investors anticipate and yields in the US remain quite stable. 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2024) The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities We still see most yields falling despite higher Treasury yields Higher US interest rates will probably continue to weigh on government bonds globally. But we still expect bond yields in most developed market (DM) economies to fall back by the end of 2025, as... 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US equities to remain bond-proof Although last week’s pull-back in the S&P 500 coincided with a big increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, we don’t think this marks the start of prolonged period of weakness in US equities driven by... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Making the dollar great again The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The poor prospects for China’s stock market We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trump The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the Treasury yield curve? We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation might soon be front-page news again While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. 13th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
