Africa Economics Update The potential losers if AGOA is removed US President-elect Trump’s protectionist rhetoric may mean that African sovereigns are contemplating the loss of preferential trade access to the US via the AGOA scheme. We think the overall impact... 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to cut, oil prices slump The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24) GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain... 23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging... 31st July 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most... 28th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected... 25th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
