Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa 2025 Budget Postponed The eleventh-hour unprecedented postponement of South Africa’s 2025 Budget due to disagreements within the Government of National Unity on tax policy, suggest that it is domestic rather than foreign... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: economy likely to have rebounded in late-2024 South Africa’s hard activity data for December were generally disappointing but it’s still likely that the economy rebounded in Q4 of last year following a surprise contraction in Q3. We expect the... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: inflation revamp unlikely to change policy path Nigeria’s headline inflation rate came in at 24.5% y/y in January after the national statistics office made substantial methodological changes and, while we do not yet have the full information to... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks outside of Asia increasingly cautious The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 13th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Trump’s focus on land bill risks GNU instability The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
