Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and EMs: key questions answered We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals soft end to Q3 South Africa’s activity data for September points to a subdued end to Q3, but we think this softer patch will be short-lived as low inflation and the SARB’s easing cycle provide some support to demand... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs? US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there... 18th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct' 24) Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Trump trade and EM crisis risks The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2024) Our measure of capital outflows from EMs has jumped to its highest level since July 2022 amid the recent surge in US Treasury yields and strengthening of the dollar. If Donald Trump wins the US... 29th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
