Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Trump and Africa: the story so far The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices... 10th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, SA Budget and GNU instability African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa and US auto tariffs, Nigeria’s oil blasts South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2025) The outlook for EM GDP growth appears increasingly challenging and our growth forecasts for this year generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue although, outside Asia, high... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya-IMF disagreement, SARB’s uncertainty worries Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal may replace it, we think public debt concerns are likely to build... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Industry lagging retail, but recovery to continue South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that the retail sector is steaming ahead and driving the recovery. We think the lagging industrial sector will start to catch up on the back of... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb '25.) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation figure for February, of 3.2% y/y, keeps the door open for the Reserve Bank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) at its meeting tomorrow. 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update South Africa’s political uncertainty likely to weigh on assets Lingering fiscal risks in South Africa, alongside the challenging global backdrop, prompt us to expect a dim outlook for the country’s bonds, equities and the rand over the rest of this year. 18th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uncertainty hangs over SA Budget, but compromise likely South Africa’s 2025 Budget speech was (finally) delivered but it’s not at all clear whether the plans will be approved given the DA’s opposition to the proposed VAT hike. We think there is more horse... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
