Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2024) Nigeria recorded a further pick-up in GDP growth to 3.8% y/y in Q4 of last year and, with inflation and interest rates set to fall sharply, we expect the recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget fallout, Nigeria’s CPI revamp South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement due to divisions within the ruling coalition. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached in the coming... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: inflation revamp unlikely to change policy path Nigeria’s headline inflation rate came in at 24.5% y/y in January after the national statistics office made substantial methodological changes and, while we do not yet have the full information to... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 13th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria oil and BRICS, Mozambique LNG delay Nigeria recently became the BRICS group's latest "partner" member, adding to the evidence that the government is trying to straddle the geopolitical divide between US- and China-led blocs. But that... 24th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Weak rand and the SARB, Ghana and Nigeria inflation The rand’s recent weakness has raised worries in the market that the SARB’s easing cycle will slow. There are upside risks to our rates forecast, but we still believe tight fiscal policy and spare... 17th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec '24.) The further rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 34.8% y/y in December, raises the risk that the central bank pushes ahead with one last interest rate hike at their next meeting in February... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: interest rates heading down in 2025 We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still... 8th January 2025 · 4 mins read
