Commodities Trump’s upside risks to oil prices blunted by OPEC+ Following President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, the upside risks to oil prices from his foreign policy are crystallising. That said, OPEC+’s spare capacity and... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE set to be Gulf’s growth star once again A combination of stronger oil output and a thriving non-oil economy will support stronger growth in the UAE’s economy this year, helping it to retain its crown as the fastest growing economy in the... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gold going for… gold; OPEC+’s grand plans In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. While much ink has been spilled linking the... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
Commodities Update US oil output resilient amid industry “disruption” On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by... 17th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Sluggish US oil demand a fresh headache for OPEC+ For all the focus on a possible ‘Trumpcession’ and the related risks to US oil demand, it is worth noting that oil demand growth is already anaemic and our view on the US economy is consistent with... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s best-laid plans could easily go awry While we learned this week that OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to gradually raise oil output from April, question marks over production discipline within the group and the strength of global oil demand... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Could Saudi renege on OPEC+ plan as fiscal woes emerge? Saudi Arabia agreed with the rest of OPEC+ to proceed with increases in oil output from April, but the slide in oil prices and the news that Aramco will cut its dividend payment will test the Kingdom... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China NPC is no gamechanger for commodity markets Although industrial metals prices have risen following the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China, we still think that prices will fall over 2025 and 2026 given that the policies outlined do not go... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Aramco’s dividend cut puts a dent in Saudi’s budget The news that Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, will cut its dividend payout this year will put a dent in the Kingdom’s public finances and, together with a likely decline in the state’s... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ compromises amidst a geopolitical maelstrom OPEC+’s plan to increase oil output by 2.2m barrels per day over the next 18 months or so risks saturating the global market and highlights the downside risks to our already below-consensus oil price... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
