FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: US dollar going nowhere fast, but the yen is on the move Despite a continued steady stream of headlines out of the Trump administration, currency markets have remained remarkably calm this week. The dollar has stabilised today but remains around its lowest... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more downside for JGBs, upside for the yen Today’s inflation and PMI data in Japan bolster our view that the 10-year JGB yield will continue to rise. We are sticking to our forecast that it will end 2025 at 1.75%, as the BoJ tightens policy by... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s investment, auto tariffs The bright spot in the Colombian Q4 GDP data published this week was the rise in fixed investment, but the volatile political situation and low savings rate will limit the rise in the coming years... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s renminbi dilemma We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar falters further as tariffs & Ukraine trump hot CPI Despite Wednesday’s hotter than expected US CPI report, the greenback remains on the backfoot as the dollar “Trump trade” has gone into reverse. Between news on President Trump’s tariffs plans, his... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Tariff relief may prove fleeting for currency markets The dollar’s boost from tariff announcements last weekend proved short-lived and, despite rallying a bit in response to the latest Employment Report, the greenback is set to end the week lower against... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How Trump’s tariff policy is shaping our view of markets Despite Donald Trump cutting deals with Mexico and Canada, we are not backtracking from our revised view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines for the next six months. What’s more, if US tariffs end... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s tariffs roil markets: what next? US President Trump has ended weeks of speculation and announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. We think there are a few points to note on their implications for global markets. 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
