FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Making the dollar great again

The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer

The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

FX Markets Update

Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trump

The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro parity is back on the cards

The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than...

11th November 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Trump, tariffs, and the dollar

While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa

A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes

One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency

We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

MAGA meets Make in India

The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar

With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near...

7th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Markets Update

New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency

We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher...

7th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade

This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term.

6th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

The calm before the storm for currencies?

Currency markets are ending the week broadly unchanged, on net, leaving the US dollar near a three-month high ahead of next week’s pivotal election. With polls continuing to point to a very tight race...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read