The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices and/or a more challenging external financing environment. This comes while many of the poorest African economies are also enduring a loss of US aid, which itself could have dire humanitarian consequences, and the threat of a scaling back of multilateral support. All this risks pushing those in the region without leverage with the US closer to China. While we think sovereign debt risks in the region are rising too.
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