The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that Turkey’s economy will record very robust growth in Q3, boosted by the comparison with a period last year when activity was disrupted by the coup attempt. Meanwhile, various economic surveys for the region now stand at or around multi-year highs. However, it’s not all good news. In particular, it looks like growth in Russia has softened a little in the last few months. Perhaps the more important point, though, is that Q3 is likely to mark the peak for regional growth. Growth in Turkey is being flattered by temporary factors, while economic cycles in Central Europe are starting to look mature. We expect regional GDP growth to slow in the final quarter of this year and into 2018.
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